中国环境科学

作者：刘雪薇, 雷廷宙, 白晶晶, 楼紫阳, 韩一石, 马文超

单位：1. 天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300072;2. 常州大学城乡矿业研究所, 江苏 常州 213164;3. 海南大学生态与环境学院, 海南省农林环境过程与生态调控重点实验室, 海南 海口 570228;4. 上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院, 上海 200240

关键词：塑料污染,环境泄漏,塑料循环一揽子计划,可持续发展

基金：国家自然科学基金-联合国环境规划署联合研究资助项目(72261147460)

This study provides an overview of plastic use, waste, and environmental leakage to 2060. The role of plastic policy scenario implementation (curbing industry demand, enhancing recycling, and reducing the mismanagement rate) in mitigating plastic pollution is illuminated. The research found that if the plastic industry continued as it is, it would remain unsustainable. Environmental leakage of plastic would be expected to double by 2060 compared to 2022. Implementing plastic policies could limit the global growth trend in plastic use and waste (nearly 23% reduction), improve the recyclability of plastic (2060: recycling, +30%), and reduce the environmental leakage of plastic (2060: mismanagement, -15%). The policies consider several scenarios, all of which would contribute to the reduction of mismanaged waste, with a 64.09% reduction in plastic leaking into the environment project. Policy scenarios make the relative decoupling between the environmental leakage and the use of plastic, which conveys that the environmental leakage of plastic will no longer be directly affected by usage. Future policy construction can turn towards strengthening recycling and disposal structure management to achieve sustainable development.

来源：2024年第11期

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