中国环境科学

作者：张红亮, 吴杰, 赵临轩, 吴健

单位：中国人民大学生态环境学院, 北京 100872

关键词：气温,气候变化,随机前沿分析,能源效率

基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72103198);中国人民大学科学研究基金资助(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(22XNF017)

This study employs a stochastic frontier analysis to measure the total factor energy efficiency at the national level across the globe, utilizes a two-way fixed effects model to evaluate the influence of temperature, a critical environmental factor, on the total factor energy efficiency, and projects the impact of future global warming on energy efficiency in different countries. The study finds an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and the total factor energy efficiency among nations, which is influenced by income levels. Energy efficiency in poorer countries is more affected by temperature compared to wealthier nations. Specifically, an additional day with an average temperature above 30℃ annually is associated with an average reduction of 0.161in total factor energy efficiency, while an additional day with an average temperature below 0℃ leads to an average decline of 0.176. Prediction results indicate that global warming by the end of the 21st century will lead to a decline in world average energy efficiency, with countries near the equator experiencing more severe impacts. Under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 warming scenarios, the temperature increase induced by climate change will reduce the world's average energy efficiency by 0.76% and 2.76% compared to levels from 1995 to 2005.

来源：2024年第11期

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